BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Brave
Frankenweenie
Madagascar 3
ParaNorman
Rise of the Guardians
Wreck-It Ralph
WILL - ParaNorman?
SHOULD - Wreck-It Ralph / ParaNorman
The first truly wide open animated race in awhile. I think ParaNorman seems to be tracking towards a win, but I'm a big Wreck-It Ralph guy with it's crazy detail from a video era that is long in the past. Brave also has an outside chance here...man...I don't know who wins.
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Amour
The Intouchables
A Royal Affair
Rust and Bone
WILL - Amour
SHOULD - Amour
Amour is tracking here to be the winner in this category, though there are a number of folks in the camp of Rust and Bone as well. After learning about my group, I just think Amour wins.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATUREBully
The Imposter
Queen of Versailles
Searching for Sugar Man
The Central Park Five
West of Memphis
WILL - Searching for Sugar Man
SHOULD - Mea Maxima Culpa (Searching for Sugar Man)
Look...I always get my favorite doc snubbed from this category...so I will lobby forever for the one that I liked the most. Last year it was The Interrupters and this year Alex Gibney's Mea Maxima Culpa: Silence in the House of God just grabbed me in ways that no other film did. Sugar Man is really good, no disrespect to anyone on that...so that would be ok. There is also the chance that the big newsmaker movie Bully could come through here, it wouldn't surprise me.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAYQuentin Tarantino – Django Unchained
John Gatins – Flight
Rian Johnson – Looper
Paul Thomas Anderson – The Master
Wes Anderson & Roman Coppola – Moonrise Kingdom
Mark Boal – Zero Dark Thirty
WILL - Quentin Tarantino or Mark Boal
SHOULD - Rian Johnson
It's no secret...I loved Looper. The biggest reason for why I loved it was an amazing/midbending script that told a story you could talk about for HOURS after the film ended. Our group does love Quentin though (which was part of the surprise behind the muted campaign for Django).
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Chris Terrio – Argo
Tony Kushner – Lincoln
David O. Russell – Silver Linings Playbook
David Magee – Life of Pi
Stephen Chbosky – The Perks of Being a Wallflower
WILL - Chris Terrio
SHOULD - Stephen Chbosky or David O. Russell
This award will probably spread the wealth around for the night...but the two films, Silver Linings Playbook and The Perks of Being a Wallflower were able to tell some very personal stories in film. And that is a good thing. Perks is a very underrated film that has the story at its center and really works.
BEST ACTOR
Bradley Cooper – Silver Linings Playbook
Daniel Day-Lewis – Lincoln
John Hawkes – The Sessions
Hugh Jackman – Les Miserables
Joaquin Phoenix – The Master
Denzel Washington – Flight
WILL - Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
SHOULD - Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
No offense to a number of talented actors here, but nobody embodied the role quite like Daniel Day-Lewis. He became President Lincoln with all his faults and mannerisms. In another year...if you took Day-Lewis out of this category, this might have been an interesting throwdown. Cooper delivers probably his best performance of his career. Hawkes continues a fantastic run of great performances. Phoenix is amazing as the student in a film where the acting is better than the film. Denzel is steady as usual and Hugh proves he can do it all. But make no mistake...this will go home with Daniel Day-Lewis.
Bradley Cooper – Silver Linings Playbook
Daniel Day-Lewis – Lincoln
John Hawkes – The Sessions
Hugh Jackman – Les Miserables
Joaquin Phoenix – The Master
Denzel Washington – Flight
WILL - Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
SHOULD - Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
No offense to a number of talented actors here, but nobody embodied the role quite like Daniel Day-Lewis. He became President Lincoln with all his faults and mannerisms. In another year...if you took Day-Lewis out of this category, this might have been an interesting throwdown. Cooper delivers probably his best performance of his career. Hawkes continues a fantastic run of great performances. Phoenix is amazing as the student in a film where the acting is better than the film. Denzel is steady as usual and Hugh proves he can do it all. But make no mistake...this will go home with Daniel Day-Lewis.
BEST ACTRESS
Jessica Chastain – Zero Dark Thirty
Marion Cotillard – Rust and Bone
Jennifer Lawrence – Silver Linings Playbook
Emmanuelle Riva – Amour
Quvenzhane Wallis – Beasts of the Southern Wild
Naomi Watts – The Impossible
WILL - Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
SHOULD - Jessica Chastain / Jennifer Lawrence
Lawrence delivers on her young promise in the amazing Silver Linings Playbook and was probably in the lead for the award right up until Zero Dark Thirty was seen. Chastain goes through an amazing transformation and her dogged determination shines in Zero Dark Thirty. But there are some wildcards here....Quvenzhane is loved by our group and Naomi Watts is amazing in The Impossible.
Jessica Chastain – Zero Dark Thirty
Marion Cotillard – Rust and Bone
Jennifer Lawrence – Silver Linings Playbook
Emmanuelle Riva – Amour
Quvenzhane Wallis – Beasts of the Southern Wild
Naomi Watts – The Impossible
WILL - Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
SHOULD - Jessica Chastain / Jennifer Lawrence
Lawrence delivers on her young promise in the amazing Silver Linings Playbook and was probably in the lead for the award right up until Zero Dark Thirty was seen. Chastain goes through an amazing transformation and her dogged determination shines in Zero Dark Thirty. But there are some wildcards here....Quvenzhane is loved by our group and Naomi Watts is amazing in The Impossible.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Alan Arkin – Argo
Javier Bardem – Skyfall
Robert De Niro – Silver Linings Playbook
Philip Seymour Hoffman – The Master
Tommy Lee Jones – Lincoln
Matthew McConaughey – Magic Mike
WILL - ??? (Matthew McConaughey)
SHOULD - ??? (a six way tie?)
This and the next category (Supporting Actress) gave me fits before I sent my ballot in. I can make an amazing case for everyone nominated. Alan Arkin was absolutely wonderful as a director of a fake movie (but was John Goodman just as good there). Javier Bardem gave us a Bond villain we all could agree on; he nailed it. Robert De Niro's face as he tries to calm the out of control Bradley Cooper down in Silver Linings showed pain and we felt it with him. Philip Seymour Hoffman delivered a mast acting class in his role in The Master. Tommy Lee Jones killed his role in Lincoln and was able to elicit all the right emotions, at the right time. Matthew McConaughey was even campaigned for by Steven Soderbergh. I'm still conflicted, I'll be as interested as anyone on Thursday night to see this winner.
Alan Arkin – Argo
Javier Bardem – Skyfall
Robert De Niro – Silver Linings Playbook
Philip Seymour Hoffman – The Master
Tommy Lee Jones – Lincoln
Matthew McConaughey – Magic Mike
WILL - ??? (Matthew McConaughey)
SHOULD - ??? (a six way tie?)
This and the next category (Supporting Actress) gave me fits before I sent my ballot in. I can make an amazing case for everyone nominated. Alan Arkin was absolutely wonderful as a director of a fake movie (but was John Goodman just as good there). Javier Bardem gave us a Bond villain we all could agree on; he nailed it. Robert De Niro's face as he tries to calm the out of control Bradley Cooper down in Silver Linings showed pain and we felt it with him. Philip Seymour Hoffman delivered a mast acting class in his role in The Master. Tommy Lee Jones killed his role in Lincoln and was able to elicit all the right emotions, at the right time. Matthew McConaughey was even campaigned for by Steven Soderbergh. I'm still conflicted, I'll be as interested as anyone on Thursday night to see this winner.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams – The Master
Judi Dench – Skyfall
Ann Dowd – Compliance
Sally Field – Lincoln
Anne Hathaway – Les Miserables
Helen Hunt – The Sessions
WILL - Amy Adams, The Master
SHOULD - ??? (Amy Adams)
Like actor, I really like all of the nominated performances. I think the most likely play here is the group comes down to Amy Adams and Sally Field. The others either weren't campaigned hard enough or have other minor factors that will work against them. But like Supporting Actor I liked everyone here....man I'm conflicted!
Amy Adams – The Master
Judi Dench – Skyfall
Ann Dowd – Compliance
Sally Field – Lincoln
Anne Hathaway – Les Miserables
Helen Hunt – The Sessions
WILL - Amy Adams, The Master
SHOULD - ??? (Amy Adams)
Like actor, I really like all of the nominated performances. I think the most likely play here is the group comes down to Amy Adams and Sally Field. The others either weren't campaigned hard enough or have other minor factors that will work against them. But like Supporting Actor I liked everyone here....man I'm conflicted!
BEST DIRECTOR
Ben Affleck – Argo
Kathryn Bigelow – Zero Dark Thirty
Tom Hooper – Les Miserables
Ang Lee – Life of Pi
David O. Russell – Silver Linings Playbook
Steven Spielberg – Lincoln
WILL - Ben Affleck
SHOULD - Ben Affleck
Call it a hunch...nothing more. When we are at this point in the night...none of these films are in the "It was a pleasure just to be nominated category"...all could win. See them all!
Ben Affleck – Argo
Kathryn Bigelow – Zero Dark Thirty
Tom Hooper – Les Miserables
Ang Lee – Life of Pi
David O. Russell – Silver Linings PlaybookSteven Spielberg – Lincoln
WILL - Ben Affleck
SHOULD - Ben Affleck
Call it a hunch...nothing more. When we are at this point in the night...none of these films are in the "It was a pleasure just to be nominated category"...all could win. See them all!
BEST PICTURE
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Django Unchained
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
The Master
Moonrise Kingdom
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty
WILL - Argo/Lincoln/Zero Dark Thirty
SHOULD - Argo
Look - Argo was my top film on my list last year...and it made that for a reason. I just re-watched my top 4 Argo, Zero Dark Thirty, Lincoln, Silver Linings Playbook and I'm still happy with my decision. Though I would feel happy for ANY of those titles to walk away a winner.
I'm ready for tomorrow night...are you? The CW at 8/7CT will be results central. Sure I'll live tweet and post some thoughts...but stay tuned...it will be a fun ride!
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